Regional Rain Watch

Rains during the October– December season have been erratic and below normal in many pastoral and marginal agricultural areas in the GHA (Figure 1), compromising the food security of households that depend on the outcome of these rains. In parts of central and northern Somalia, for example, rainfall has been insufficient for pasture regeneration and crop production. Similarly, in northeastern Tanzania, below– normal rains are likely to affect both livestock and crop production. In southeastern Ethiopia, while heavy rains in early November increased water availability and allowed pasture and browse to regenerate sufficiently to cover pastoralist needs through most of the upcoming January to March (jilaal) dry season, rains were insufficient for crop production, and rain– fed crop failures are expected in agropastoral areas. In eastern and southern Kenya, rains increased in late November, raising hopes for continued livestock recovery and improved crop production. However, in Kenya's southeastern districts, rains early in the season were erratic, planting was delayed and crops are still at the vegetative stage. For these crops to succeed, rains would need to continue into January 2008. In Djibouti, coastal rains did not peak normally in November, increasing fears of poor pastoral production, unless the rains re– emerge in the coming weeks. But, intensifying La Nina conditions in the central Pacific Ocean and the early southward movement of the rain belt is likely to cause the remainder of the rainy season to be drier– than– normal, and makes it unlikely that rains will continue beyond December.

Figure 1. Rainfall performance as a percent of normal (Oct 1 – Dec 2, 2007)


Source: NOAA/CPC


Figure 2. Rainfall performance in the last week (Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2007)

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Conversely, in southern Somalia, normal rains are expected to promote normal livestock and rain– fed crop production. In all major cropping areas in southern Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda harvests of long– rains crops are underway or completed and production was above– average and will not be affected by the current rains.

Over the past week, rains fell in the Middle and Lower Juba regions of Somalia and southeastern portions of Kenya (Figure 2). The additional moisture is expected to further improve crop and livestock production in southern Somalia, and has helped reduce seasonal moisture deficits to near– normal levels, improving pastoral and agropastoral production prospects in southeast Kenya. However, conflict in Somalia, insecurity– related restrictions on trade and movement in Ethiopia, and continued high prices and a potential spread of locust outbreaks in Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti, will cause existing levels of food insecurity to persist in these areas. These levels of food insecurity are expected to deteriorate further during the upcoming January – March dry season.